With headlines colliding—tariffs and global trade shifting daily, escalating international tensions, and now a U.S. airstrike in Iran—I found clarity this past week in a surprising place: a book nearly three decades old.
It started with a quote I often come back to:
“No amount of sophistication is going to allay the fact that all your knowledge is about the past and all your decisions are about the future.” — John H. Lienhard
This insight sent me down a rabbit hole that led to Peter Bernstein’s Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk. Bernstein wrote it nearly 30 years ago, but it feels made for 2025. It clarified how to use risk measurement and game theory to boost returns and reduce downside in Texas industrial real estate.
Bernstein’s central idea is elegantly simple: humanity stopped fearing fate when we began measuring it. From ancient dice games through Renaissance math to modern portfolio theory, learning to quantify risk changed more than finance; it transformed civilization itself.
At Harbor Capital, that’s precisely the way we approach the world. We don’t predict the future; we rigorously prepare for it.
When my April 2025 memo titled ‘Tariffs are here, Texas is ready’ discussed the recently announced changes to the global trade landscape, my point wasn’t about forecasting; it was about illustrating Harbor’s core strategy: proactively structuring our business for inevitable volatility. Events like shifting tariffs and geopolitical shocks, like the recent tensions with Iran, consistently reshape market expectations, affecting supply chains, pricing, and asset values. Each disruption underscores our conviction that the future is shaped by shifting probabilities, never by fixed certainties.
This philosophy, captured succinctly by our 2022 investor gift, a Harbor Capital-branded umbrella with the tagline: “Even when the sun is shining, don’t forget to pack an umbrella”, wasn’t just marketing. It is foundational to our strategy, explicitly embedded in every financial model and capital stack we develop.
If you’re intrigued by the origins of modern game theory, the evolution of mathematical risk assessment, or how these frameworks shape and elevate today’s investment strategies, let me know. I’d happily send you a copy of Bernstein’s book. Alternatively, if you’re on Spotify Premium, the audiobook is free. Either way, you won’t find a more timely read.
Best,
Levi Benkert
CEO, Harbor Capital