The newly announced tariffs aren’t a surprise, but their timing and breadth serve as a sharp reminder that macro events often move faster than capital can. The real edge isn’t in predicting headlines—it’s in understanding how markets misprice them, and structuring to stay ahead of it. We assume things will go sideways and build our deals to hold up when they do. It’s what keeps us standing when others stumble. It also puts us in a position to benefit when things break our way.
The tariffs are a good example: we didn’t count on them, but we’re sitting on millions of square feet of real estate that is poised to capitalize now that they’re here.
At Harbor, our positioning in industrial real estate, especially in Texas, was never built on a trade policy forecast. It’s grounded in structural shifts we identified early, now reinforced by fresh tailwinds. The tariffs may dominate the news cycle, but the deeper story is this: the map of global trade is being redrawn, and capital is repositioning accordingly.
We don’t speculate; we prepare. We don’t react; we anticipate.
On the ground, the early signals are clear. Activity is not pausing, but instead accelerating. And it’s doing so in exactly the places you’d expect, as supply chains are reorganizing in real time:
Cross-Border Demand Still Bidding Up: A large Mexico-based manufacturer just offered top-of-market pricing on a DFW industrial portfolio. If tariffs were freezing sentiment, someone forgot to tell them.
Leasing in Motion, Fast: Within 24 hours of the April 3rd announcement, interest in one of our large Class A assets surged from three parties to seven. All are credit tenants with immediate needs to expand their U.S. operations. This is not “wait and see.” It’s “move and secure.”
Market Tightening in Real Time: A brokerage team we work closely with represents over 2 million square feet of vacant industrial space in a Tier 1 Texas market, and since April 3rd, they’ve received workable lease offers on 100% of it. That portfolio accounts for a meaningful share of all vacant space in that submarket. If momentum holds, the market is on track to move from low-teen vacancy to low-single-digits in a matter of weeks. It’s a broad-based shift, and it’s happening fast.
This is what urgency looks like—securing position before pricing resets. It’s what happens when operators, caught between volatility and opportunity, try to lock in logistical advantages before the market reprices around them.
Let’s be clear: this isn’t about a single tariff cycle. It’s about a paradigm shift. What we’re seeing now is a longer-term realignment of supply chains, trade routes, and capital flows. Call it what you want—“reshoring,” “nearshoring,” or just plain common sense. Either way, it’s happening, even if the tariff chatter fades. This shift has momentum decades in the making.
Three forces are driving this:
–Proximity to labor and input costs in Northern Mexico that remain competitive but compliant.
-Seamless infrastructure integration, including rail, ports, and highways, that connect Mexican industry to U.S. consumers.
-A favorable policy environment under USMCA keeps Mexico largely tariff-exempt. That’s no accident; it’s the byproduct of a non-adversarial, strategic posture toward the U.S.
-Mexico’s share of U.S. imports jumped to 15.5% in 2024, up from 13.6% in 2018.
-China’s fell to 13.4%, down from 21.2%. Now the roles have flipped.
-Vietnam and others are gaining ground, but without Mexico’s geographical and systemic advantages, they cannot compete.
This is a supply chain decision, pure and simple. If you can reduce shipping risk, compress delivery timelines, and avoid tariff shocks, all while staying within a legal and logistically sound framework, why wouldn’t you?
Texas is uniquely positioned to benefit, not someday, but now. The data tells the story:
-Net absorption across key Texas metros rose sharply in late 2024.
-Early 2025 indicators suggest continued acceleration, even as national trends waver.
With access to Mexico and a buffer from Asia-Pacific disruptions, Texas sits at the intersection of global supply and U.S. demand. In short, it’s indispensable.
Even where headlines hint at trouble, like certain plant closures in Mexico, the underlying trend is intact. Labor is there. Infrastructure is built. Incentives are aligned. Political risk, while real, is lower in Texas than almost anywhere else in the emerging world.
At Harbor, we continue to do what we’ve always done: underwrite conservatively, operate pragmatically, and invest where secular forces meet mispriced opportunity. The new tariff regime simply affirms that thesis.
Real assets. Real tenants. Real demand. Below replacement cost. In the right zip codes.
Volatility always makes noise. Quiet, deliberate strategy wins over time.